2020: A time to remember

Professor Frank Peck, of the University of Cumbria’s Centre for Regional Economic Development,says we must look beyond the current Covid-19 crisis and hope for a less pessimistic future. The first quarter of 2020 will be remembered. Only a few weeks ago, we might have thought that the UK’s formal departure from the EU on January 31 would be the standout event. But in the short term, leaving the EU has been completely overshadowed by the threats posed by the spread of Covid-19. Officially declared a pandemic by the World Health Organisation on March 11, the situation has developed rapidly. There is still much uncertainty surrounding the details of this disease; exactly how it spreads; how contagious it is; when it might reach a peak in different countries; what impacts the mitigation measures might have on economies. Experience of previous outbreaks of disease has clearly informed responses to the current crisis. While one outbreak cannot be used to predict the precise outcome of another, previous research does provide understanding of the types of economic impacts that are likely.