Brexit: anything to declare?

In his new look monthly column, Professor Frank Peck of the University of Cumbria’s Centre for Regional Economic Development will tackle the burning issue of Brexit. This month, he focuses on the progress – or lack thereof – made since the triggering of Article 50. As we approach the anniversary of the triggering of Article 50 this month, it is appropriate to reflect on the progress that has been made over the past 12 months. There has obviously been much negotiation on some issues but regarding trade and movement of goods and services, the situation is much the same. For business, the key word is still “uncertainty”. Uncertainty though is unavoidable. A soft Brexit (akin to Norway) is unlikely to be politically acceptable as it would require continued financial contributions to the EU and compliance with the EU regulatory machinery to remain part of the single market. At the other extreme, most commentators agree that a hard Brexit “no deal” option would be highly punitive. So the most likely outcome is something between the two – a “trade deal” of some kind negotiated with the EU. The fact is, no one can know for certain what this might produce. Brexit is therefore not one of a set of options on the shelf but a negotiation process with an uncertain outcome.