Exploring the ecological feasibility of restoring Eurasian lynx to Great Britain using spatially explicit individual-based modelling

Ecological restoration offers a multitude of benefits for the human-nature system, which has put it at the forefront of international initiatives opposing environmental degradation. In Great Britain, the reintroduction of Eurasian lynx has been proposed to help improve ecosystem health, raising the question; what is the ecological feasibility of lynx reintroduction in Great Britain? Combining a lynx-specific spatially explicit individual-based model and contemporary habitat suitability mapping would shed new light on this question. We hypothesised potential drivers of reintroduction success, including demographic parameters, behavioural responses in habitat selection, and management strategies. We further hypothesised that reintroductions may not be viable in some regions, therefore, we considered scenarios with improved habitat to understand the potential effect of national habitat creation policies. We aimed to provide evidence on practical and ecological conditions necessary for successful reintroduction to support stakeholder discussions. We found that the release site was critical to ensure low extinction probability and advantageous population expansion for demographic viability and maintenance of neutral genetic diversity. Specifically, Aberdeenshire, Galloway, and Kielder Forest had robust reintroduction success under diverse conditions, even without the hypothesised habitat improvements. Our simulations suggested a population of 240 individuals could emerge from a release in Aberdeenshire and population of 60 individuals from a release in either Kielder Forest or Galloway, all with allelic richness >2 and extinction probabilities <= 5 %. Our work suggests a well-planned, legal, lynx reintroduction in Great Britain could be feasible, provided there is acceptance in key stakeholder groups.