Managing uncertainty in civil nuclear projects

Constructing the next generation nuclear power plants, keeping existing nuclear power plants operating safely and decommissioning plants at the end of their lifespan are all long-term, large-scale and complex project endeavors that must be delivered in a safe and timely manner. The inherent uncertainties at play in these complex socio-technological environments are many and non-trivial in nature, having the potential to derail or cause delays. A key challenge facing project managers tasked with delivering nuclear projects is to understand the sources of project uncertainty and to navigate a path through them. This chapter is based on research carried out on project management practitioners in the civil nuclear industry (Saunders, Gale, & Sherry, 2016; Saunders, Sherry, & Gale, 2016; Saunders, Gale, & Sherry, 2015) and previously published in the Journal of Construction Management and Economics (Saunders, Sherry and Gale, 2016). The research aimed to establish the sources of uncertainty in large-scale safety-critical projects and assess how this uncertainty emerges, is analyzed and treated. The authors found that project management practitioners adopt a combination of structural, behavioral and relational approaches to confronting uncertainty, within which there are a number of dualities in how uncertainty emerges, is analyzed and resolved. The objective of this chapter is to enrich our understanding of complex emergent problems in these projects, which often proceed under high levels of uncertainty. The chapter proffers frameworks, approaches and practices that will enable uncertainty to be dealt with rather than dreaded.