The economics expert considers the challenges facing businesses in Cumbria during 2023 and evidence of business resilience

The signs suggest that 2023 is going to be a testing time for businesses across Cumbria. At national level, the main indicator of economic growth, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – a measure of the value of all goods and services produced in an economy – shows that 2022 is likely to have seen growth of around 4% from a low base level in the previous year which was still impacted negatively by the pandemic. More significantly, the average of all forecasts for 2023 suggests an overall decline of -0.9% for the year. The rate of inflation for 2022 was 12.9% (Retail Price Index) with considerable uncertainty surrounding the rates likely in 2023. Independent forecasts published by the UK Treasury in November range significantly from 2.6%to 11%! Simultaneously, the labour market is expected to remain very tight, acting as a further inhibitor to business growth as firms in many sectors struggle to recruit workers with relevant skills.